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Future of Software Engineering: Open Questions Amid AI Acceleration

As AI agents accelerate coding, the future of software engineering is in flux. While some trends are clear, such as the product management bottleneck, many implications regarding AI’s impact on the job market and team organization are still uncertain. The author will be speaking about this theme at the AI Developer Conference in San Francisco on April 28-29. Contrary to popular belief about massive job losses due to AI, the author holds a contrarian view, suggesting the "AI jobpocalypse" won't be as severe as pundits forecast. Software engineering is one of the professions most accelerated by AI, and a report by Citadel Securities indicates a rapid rise in software engineering job postings, which is seen as an encouraging sign if it's a harbinger for other professions. While fresh graduates face difficulties and some layoffs are attributed to AI (often "AI washing"), other factors like over-hiring during the pandemic and high interest rates also contribute to labor market slowdowns. Specific job roles, like call center operators, are more heavily impacted, leading to job insecurity for many. In software engineering, exciting workflow adaptations are ahead. It's evident that AI will make coding accessible to more people, reading/writing code manually will become less important due to LLMs, custom applications will proliferate economically, deciding what to build will be the primary bottleneck, and the cost of technical debt will decrease as AI can handle refactoring.
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